Leonardo Vera retratado por Roberto Mata

Desde 1979 la economía venezolana registra tasas de inflación anual de dos o tres dígitos.  Peligrosamente ha ingresado en una fase donde la enfermedad comienza a agudizarse y amenaza con llegar a una gravedad extrema donde tendría que hablarse de hiperinflación.  Leonardo Vera, PhD en Economía de la University of East London y profesor titular de la Cátedra de Macroeconomía de la Universidad Central de Venezuela, considera que el país debe aplicar una medicina que acabe en poco tiempo con el mal y afirma que el tratamiento no es incompatible con un programa de recuperación que apueste a la expansión.

“Para hablar de inflación puede ser útil una analogía con la hepatitis, que es una enfermedad que se desarrolla en cuatro tipos A, B, C, y D.  Hay un tipo de inflación baja que podemos llamar tipo A, otra moderada y crónica que podemos denominar tipo B, en niveles altos y en aceleración sería tipo C, y la hiperinflación que bien podemos denominar como D.  En medicina, la hepatitis A suele ser combatida por una regla o por la reacción automática del mismo sistema inmunológico.  Lo mismo ocurre en países donde la inflación anual es menor a un dígito.  En cierto modo, los bancos centrales tienen una función de reacción que los hace mover la tasa de interés y el nivel de demanda de bienes y servicios automáticamente.  Cuando llegas a hepatitis D, los medicamentos más fuertes no funcionan y los médicos pueden llegar a recomendar un trasplante de hígado, lo que en el plano económico asocio con un trasplante de moneda.  Por eso es común encontrar en eventos de hiperinflación reformas monetarias que al final conducen a la adopción de una nueva moneda como el dólar”.

Vera considera que Venezuela está entrando en un proceso de hiperinflación y lo peor aún no se ha visto.  “La métrica más popular es la de Phillip Cagan, que señala que el proceso se inicia cuando la tasa se ubica en 50% al mes.  Desde la Segunda Guerra Mundial distintos episodios de hiperinflación han ocurrido sobre todo en América Latina, en países como Bolivia, Perú, Argentina, Brasil, Uruguay y Nicaragua.  El último gran caso de hiperinflación es Zimbabue que comenzó en marzo de 2007 y terminó a comienzos de 2009”.

Más allá de la métrica: ¿cuál es la sintomatología de una hiperinflación?
Los precios comienzan a subir vertiginosamente porque se entroniza una expectativa en todo aquel que tiene la facultad de fijar un precio de que los ajustes se harán más fuertes y más frecuentes.  El combustible proviene de la impresión desordenada de dinero y/o de la depreciación del tipo de cambio.  En Venezuela ambas cosas están activadas.  La sequía de dólares en el mercado cambiario oficial es absoluta en medio de una inundación de bolívares que nadie quiere.  Cuando se combinan estas dos cosas inmediatamente se genera una presión en el mercado paralelo de divisas, por donde están transitando la mayor parte de las operaciones cambiarias.

¿Por qué considera que el mercado paralelo de dólares tiene tanto peso?
La cuenta es muy sencilla.  Durante el tiempo que estuvo activo el DICOM vendió 100 millones de dólares al mes, eso apuntaba a 1.200 millones en el año en un país que va a culminar con importaciones por el orden de 14 mil millones de dólares.  ¿Dónde están los otros 11 mil o 12 mil millones? Tendrían que estar transándose a través del DIPRO, cuyo registro no conocemos, o por el mercado paralelo.  Con seguridad, en el sistema DIPRO se está transando mucho menos que esta cantidad de dólares.

Señaló que hay una inundación de bolívares, es decir, el Banco Central crea más dinero para financiar al Gobierno.  ¿Por qué se está agravando la situación?
En términos reales, los ingresos que recolecta el Estado están cayendo dramáticamente. El impuesto sobre la renta se cobra con rezago de un año y el aumento de la unidad tributaria no está compensando adecuadamente la erosión que causa la inflación.  Al mismo tiempo, la recesión impacta las importaciones y la recaudación de los impuestos de aduanas e impacta las ventas y la recaudación del IVA en términos reales.  Por otro lado, para nadie es un secreto que Venezuela está aislada financieramente.

Es evidente que el ingreso proveniente de los impuestos no petroleros está cayendo en términos reales.  ¿Qué está ocurriendo con los petroleros?
Los ingresos fiscales petroleros se han desplomado también.  La regalía cae linealmente con la producción de crudo y la renta gravable del negocio es mínima.  Para colmo de males, de esos ingresos en dólares se traspasa una mínima parte al fisco en bolívares a una tasa fija de 10 bolívares por dólar.  Entre colegas no llegamos a un consenso, pero todos estamos claros en que prácticamente PDVSA no está declarando transferencias por impuesto sobre la renta y tampoco sabemos qué está pasando con la regalía.  La tributación petrolera parece estar cayendo dramáticamente, algunos de mis colegas se inclinan por estimar una cifra que va entre 0 y 10% de los ingresos ordinarios.  Y eso es un cambio dramático en un país que estuvo acostumbrado a que esta relación estuviese entre 40% y 50%.

Ante el declive de los ingresos tributarios, petroleros y no petroleros, el Gobierno recurre al financiamiento del Banco Central.
Como el Gobierno tiene muy poco acceso al mercado financiero internacional está apelando cada vez más a la emisión de dinero y por eso los agregados monetarios están creciendo a una velocidad que no habíamos visto nunca de 1000% interanual.

¿A la inundación de bolívares y a la presión en el mercado paralelo de divisas se añaden otros factores como el ritmo del incremento del salario, que también aceleran la inflación?
Mi temor es que otras cosas también pueden inyectarle combustible a este incendio y una de ellas son los incrementos salariales más recurrentes.  En el año 2012, los incrementos del salario mínimo eran semestrales, en 2013 pasaron a ser cada cuatro meses y en esa dinámica pareciera que ya llegamos a aumentos cada dos meses.  La mayor frecuencia en los ajustes salariales es un síntoma típico de un proceso de aceleración inflacionaria, pero además una fuente de alimentación del proceso porque los costos comienzan a cambiar a una velocidad mayor.  Las empresas financian los incrementos de nómina subiendo precios y solicitando aumentos en sus líneas de crédito a los bancos.  El Gobierno lo hace imprimiendo dinero.

También está presente en la población un deseo cada vez mayor de desprenderse rápidamente de los bolívares.
Desde luego, la gente busca proteger su patrimonio tratando de salir de los bolívares convirtiéndolos en cualquier otra cosa como activos físicos, alimentos duraderos o dólares, porque no hay instrumentos financieros y las tasas de interés están congeladas.  Incluso ya estamos viendo transacciones en dólares como un mecanismo que emplean ciertos agentes de servicios para protegerse.  Pero lo que quiero resaltar es que ese proceso de desconfianza en la moneda se ha combinado con desconfianza hacia el sistema financiero, porque los bancos se han visto en la necesidad de ponerle límites a los retiros desde que se hizo el catastrófico cambio del cono monetario.  Todo esto es muy peligroso.

¿Es posible que la gente llegue a repudiar por completo a la moneda?
Sí, y a eso ha contribuido este intento de introducir tan caóticamente el nuevo cono monetario, que por cierto es una de las cosas que comienza a pasar en una hiperinflación con una frecuencia que ni siquiera imaginamos.  En los procesos de hiperinflación, la autoridad monetaria tiene que cambiar continuamente el cono monetario porque los billetes que circulan ya no sirven.

Hablemos de cómo enfrentar la enfermedad.  ¿Basta con cambiar al directorio del Banco Central y recortar la emisión de dinero?
Es un problema que debe ser atacado por su complejidad desde varias vertientes.  Por tanto, no es tan simple como cambiar al directorio del Banco Central con una expresa orden ejecutiva de recortar la cantidad de dinero.  Por supuesto, hay que poner orden en la política monetaria, pero eso no basta.  Esa visión monetarista no es del todo apta para Venezuela.  Hay que trabajar con un enfoque mucho más integral, hacer varias cosas al mismo tiempo.  Remover la distorsión cambiaria y en el sistema de precios, promover la recuperación de la actividad económica, ir cerrando las dificultades fiscales, y movernos rápidamente hacia una reforma monetaria.

¿Cómo abordar el tema cambiario?
Hay que acabar con la distorsión cambiaria.  Venezuela no tiene siquiera un mercado cambiario en este preciso momento.  El mercado paralelo es ilegal.  Debemos construir un mercado cambiario, líquido, de libre acceso, con una cotización única, no sobrevaluada y creíble, que no genere expectativas de devaluación, es decir, que el público sienta que es un tipo de cambio que incluso frente a cualquier eventualidad el Banco Central puede defender.  Quizás deba flotar en un inicio, buscando que el mercado marque la cotización inicial.  El mercado paralelo podría quedar legalizado para ciertas otras transacciones de portafolio.

¿Esto no requiere un aumento importante de las reservas internacionales?
Ciertamente, para eso es necesario reconstruir un fondo de reservas internacionales.  Eso rápidamente nos lleva al tema del financiamiento internacional, ayuda de multilaterales, el reperfilamiento de la deuda pública, la necesidad de cambiar la forma en que PDVSA aglutina los dólares y los vende al Banco Central, y revisar convenios como los que existen con China y Petrocaribe.

Otra arista del problema es el flanco fiscal.
Una segunda tarea es trabajar lo fiscal.  Parece mentira, pero el problema fiscal más grave que tiene Venezuela no está en el Gobierno, está en PDVSA.  Las cuentas de PDVSA en bolívares tienen un agujero gigantesco porque los pocos dólares que tiene, los vende a la tasa DIPRO (10 bolívares por dólar) y sus gastos crecen con la inflación.  Entonces una empresa cuyos gastos le están subiendo con la inflación y sus ingresos en bolívares están estancados por vender cada dólar a una tasa ridículamente baja, obviamente tiene que tener un hueco cada vez más grande.

¿La unificación cambiaria acabaría la tasa artificialmente baja del DIPRO y ayudaría a disminuir el desbalance en las cuentas de PDVSA?
Obviamente la unificación cambiaria va a beneficiar a PDVSA y al fisco y en esa medida ayuda a cortar el financiamiento monetario.  El déficit fiscal del sector público puede estar en 20% del PIB y unos 12 puntos corresponden a PDVSA.  Pero eso no es lo único que hay que hacer.  Es necesario restituir la compraventa de dólares entre PDVSA y el Banco Central.  He sugerido regresar al mecanismo en el que PDVSA vende todos los dólares al Banco Central y si necesita divisas que las compre en el mercado como cualquier otra agente institucional.  Ese mecanismo funcionó por décadas en Venezuela de manera eficiente y es la manera en que el Banco Central puede crear un fondo de reservas internacionales.  PDVSA le robó al Banco Central la facultad de constituir reservas internacionales, por lo tanto, le robó la política monetaria y la política cambiaria, y le ha robado la política fiscal al fisco porque se ha convertido en una agencia parafiscal.

¿Y no seguiría pendiente una reforma fiscal profunda?
El problema fiscal hay que resolverlo, pero más que recortarles a las gobernaciones, las alcaldías y el Gobierno Central creo que hay que hacer una reforma en la administración pública y eso no se hace de la noche a la mañana, tampoco una reforma tributaria, que desde luego será muy necesaria.  La reforma fiscal hay que señalizarla desde un comienzo, aun cuando se materialice más adelante.  Eso ayuda a generar un cambio en las expectativas.  Lo que sí creo que puede ayudar mucho en el corto plazo es el recorte del gasto público en dólares y el proceso de unificación cambiaria para reducir la brecha fiscal que tiene PDVSA.  La recuperación económica que deberá venir con la construcción de un mercado cambiario que le sirva al país y no a unos grupos de poder, mejoraría también los ingresos tributarios.

¿Qué hacer con normas como la Ley de Precios Justos?
Hay que eliminarla, se convirtió en un mecanismo propagador de la inflación.  Es un absurdo que se pretenda combatir un proceso de inflación alta con controles de precio.  Es como apagar un incendio con un pañuelo.  Cuando desaparecen los productos los precios se terminan mega-ajustando, pero de una forma desincronizada; un día el precio de la harina de maíz, otro día la harina de trigo y a cada rato hay ajustes de precios desincronizados.  Eso se convierte en un mecanismo propagador de la inflación.  Además, si no tienes precios controlados debes trabajar con un margen de ganancia que no supere 30%.

¿Y el margen de 30% de ganancia actúa como incentivo para un aumento constante en los productos no controlados?
El margen fijo de 30% es un mecanismo que también propaga la inflación.  Las empresas y los comerciantes se han ajustado a ese margen y cada vez que hay un incremento de costos modifican el precio para proteger el margen. Date cuenta de que las empresas reciben impactos de costos todos los días, por lo tanto, tienen incentivos para ajustar los precios todos los días.  Ese mecanismo es un contrasentido.

Uno de sus planteamientos ha sido una reforma monetaria.  ¿En qué consistiría?
El venezolano perdió la confianza en el bolívar, lo utiliza porque es el medio de pago obligatorio, pero no tiene ninguna otra razón para hacerlo, perdió su propiedad de reserva de valor.  Una reforma monetaria consiste en traer una nueva moneda que genere confianza.  Algunos han hablado de pasarnos al dólar, pero el problema que tiene Venezuela para pasarse al dólar es que los dólares no abundan, no tenemos dólares para ir a una dolarización.

¿Y cuál es la propuesta?
En materia de reforma monetaria algo muy similar a lo que hizo Brasil con el Plan Real.  Algo un poco más complejo que cambiar de moneda, pero la sociedad lo entendió muy bien.  Primero crearon una unidad de cuenta muy parecida, por ejemplo, a la unidad tributaria, y promovieron el marcaje de las transacciones a esta unidad que se llamó URV, de manera que los precios no se marcaban en cruzeiros, sino en URV.  La URV tuvo paridad 1 a 1 con el dólar, pero su valor en cruzeiros se ajustaba diariamente de acuerdo a un pro-rateo de la tasa de inflación mensual calculada por el Banco Central.  El cruceiro perdía cada día valor contra la URV, pero la URV 1 a 1 con el dólar.  Al poco tiempo la gente comenzó a hacer transacciones en URV y como tenía paridad fija con el dólar a razón de 1 a 1, funcionaba como un ancla.

¿Qué busca la introducción de esta unidad de cuenta?
La idea era lograr un sistema de indexación perfecta en una primera etapa y la sincronización en el ajuste de todos los precios porque una vez que los precios se ajustan sincronizadamente-al mismo tiempo- y la gente usa una unidad de cuenta anclada al dólar, no hay necesidad de más ajustes y la inflación cae abruptamente.  Al principio no todos se plegaron al mecanismo, pero poco a poco se dieron cuenta de que era ventajoso porque la unidad de cuenta era igual a un dólar, paridad uno a uno.  Por lo tanto, respecto al dólar siempre mantenía la misma paridad mientras que el cruzeiro perdía valor todos los días.

¿Y lograda la sincronización perfecta y el descenso de la inflación se introduce una nueva moneda?
Así es.  Después de tres meses de introducida la URV, la inflación cayó a un dígito y fue cuando Fernando Henrique Cardoso, quien estaba al frente del Ministerio de Hacienda, introdujo la nueva moneda, el real, con paridad uno a uno con el dólar y con la paridad respecto al cruzeiro a la que había llegado el último día de la conversión.  Se dolarizó la economía porque la unidad de cuenta estaba anclada al dólar, sin utilizar dólares, por eso digo que el esquema funge como una dolarización indirecta.  Desde ese año 1994, Brasil no ha sufrido inflación de dos dígitos.

Si se mantiene la posibilidad de devaluar en caso de ser necesario, ¿no se asume una camisa de fuerza como la que tiene Ecuador con la dolarización?
Exactamente.  De hecho, lo que pasó en Brasil es que se comenzó a apreciar la moneda.  Un error que pagaron años más tarde.  Pero el Plan Real fue tan exitoso que Cardoso renunció al Ministerio de Hacienda y ganó las elecciones presidenciales de 1994.  El real se constituyó en una moneda creíble, confiable.

¿La situación de Brasil no era más sencilla que la venezolana?
No conozco una catástrofe peor en tan pocos años en Latinoamérica como la venezolana.  Desde luego, nuestro caso es más complejo que el brasileño.  Por eso señalé que hay que trabajar en varios flancos: constituir un fondo de reservas internacionales liquidas, resolver la distorsión cambiaria y los ajustes provocados por la ley de precios justos, ir cerrando la brecha fiscal, todas estas cosas condicionan la puesta en marcha de la reforma monetaria.  Pero creo que Venezuela tiene que pasearse por un conjunto de medidas de este tipo.  La inflación se puede derrotar rápidamente y es prioritario hacerlo.  En Brasil se derrotó en tres o cuatro meses y era un país con inflación de tres dígitos y pasó a inflación anual de un dígito, un éxito rotundo.

No se puede cortar abruptamente el financiamiento monetario sin crear una crisis de liquidez, por eso algunos piensan que se necesitará gradualidad y, por tanto, en caso de una reforma, la inflación irá bajando paulatinamente.
Es cierto, yo he sido el primero en advertirlo.  El recorte abrupto del financiamiento monetario sin nada más en el menú es casi imposible e incluso puede ser contraproducente.  Si lo haces en forma gradual, admito que puedes ir bajando a una inflación mensual de 200%, luego a 80% y en tres o cuatro años quizás llegar a un dígito.  Ese es más o menos el planteamiento si vas por esa vía.  Si estás en una transición política no veo cómo un gobierno puede ganar apoyos con planes a paso de tortuga.  Sólo en una férrea hegemonía la población podría soportar semejante letanía.  El planteamiento que yo hago es que hay que matar la inflación muy rápidamente, pero necesitamos un tratamiento agresivo.  Si no hacemos esto ya, la hiperinflación generará un deslave que lamentaremos por generaciones.

¿Y esa estrategia podría ser compatible con un plan que impulse el crecimiento de la economía y permita que la población recupere capacidad de consumo?
Sin duda que la recuperación del consumo y de la inversión, lastimados por la aceleración inflacionaria, es muy importante.  Lo que estamos proponiendo se inscribe en el marco de una economía que apuesta por la expansión.  Hemos hablado de crear un fondo de reservas y un mercado cambiario funcional para poner fin a las restricciones de divisas.  Las empresas van a producir más en el momento en que se elimine el control de cambios y puedan aumentar las importaciones, y contar con más insumos y materias primas.  Pero ciertamente hay que tomar medidas para ayudar a que aumente el consumo, especialmente en los estratos más bajos, cuyo poder de compra ha sido aniquilado.

¿Cómo se lograría esto?
En la expansión el salario mejora, pues los beneficios crecen y la productividad es procíclica.  Pero Venezuela necesitaría también un fondo de emergencia para instrumentar unos buenos programas de transferencias condicionadas o no a la población en pobreza extrema.  Este tipo de programas ya existen en todos los países latinoamericanos y son avalados por organizaciones como el Banco Mundial y el Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo.  Mi idea es que una Agencia Nacional de Desarrollo se encargaría del diseño, monitoreo, y supervisión de los planes sociales, mientras que la ejecución estaría en manos de los ministerios.  El programa de recuperación de la economía con inflación baja no tiene por qué ser recesivo o de restricción del consumo.

Víctor Salmerón – 1-12-2017

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A lot of vacationers in Glasgow, takes a learn to Mallaig (occasionally going to Glencoe or Fort William en route) after that visits Isle of Skye (the best wonderful of the Scottish isles), at that point scalp along the shoreline towards Ullapool, as for Durness, en route back checking out Inverness, Fort Augustus (Loch Ness), Aberdeen and Cairngorms National Park, and also ultimately Street Andrews. Is it achievable through trains as well as buses? Naturally it is actually achievable, yet you will certainly skip a great deal, so it is actually better to rent an automobile for a minimum of component of the travel. And don’t be actually fooled due to the vacationer snare of Loch Ness– in simple fact, there are actually a lot of a lot more stunning places around Scotland country Scotland, scottish Scotland, app Scotland, conservative Scotland, info Scotland, scotland Scotland, our company Scotland, edinburgh Scotland, little one Scotland, creed Scotland, map Scotland, iona Scotland, menu Scotland, trip Scotland, data Scotland, past Scotland, car Scotland, ship Scotland, uk Scotland, train Scotland, celtic Scotland, glasgow Scotland, shetland Scotland, society Scotland, tay Scotland, bus Scotland, updates Scotland, education and learning Scotland, little Scotland, navigating Scotland, biscuit Scotland, covid Scotland, sporting activity Scotland, access Scotland, online videos Scotland, highland games Scotland, neighborhood Scotland, golf Scotland, scots Scotland, meals Scotland, whisky Scotland, spending plan Scotland, visitscotland Scotland, museum Scotland, newsletter Scotland, arbroath Scotland, heck Scotland, roadway Scotland, distilleries Scotland, street andrews Scotland, cocktail Scotland, visit scotland Scotland, europe Scotland, castles Scotland, potential Scotland, take in Scotland, weblog Scotland, dundee Scotland, steering Scotland, sporting activities Scotland, transportation Scotland Glenelg The weather condition can be irregular. 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Iona- little isle, white seashores. Island of Skye. Glencoe. Eilean Donan Castle. Island of Arran. Scotland is undoubtedly a truly stunning country, and every year it is checked out through crowds of vacationers coming from the United States, France, as well as even Italy or even Spain. Arran is actually called Scotland in miniature. Scotland, like the entire of Great Britain, is actually certainly not one of the least expensive destinations. It was actually presently spring in Scotland, the sunshine was warming up, while in Scotland it was actually still winter season all over. I hope that along with this blog post I motivated my pals (:-RRB-) yet additionally complete strangers to journey to https://www.scotland.com/

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