En la política educativa se ha identificado un problema llamado teaching to the test, que traducido significa enseñar para el examen.

El problema es el siguiente: en muchos sistemas educativos se ha querido atacar la baja calidad en la educación ligando los pagos de las escuelas al desempeño en pruebas estandarizadas.  En teoría, el incentivo de los colegios debiera ser mejorar la educación de los niños y poder demostrarlo en estas pruebas.  Las instituciones en las que sus alumnos no rinden sufren cuantiosas pérdidas.  Buscan así que los colegios busquen mejorar la calidad de la educación que imparten por interés propio.

Enseñar para el examen” quiere decir que, muchas veces, los colegios dejan de hacer cosas igualmente importantes para la educación de los niños con el fin de asegurarse que éstos salgan bien en las pruebas.  Entre las prácticas de ética dudosa figura el pedirles a los niños de bajo rendimiento que no asistan a clase el día de las pruebas, la eliminación de materias clave que no figuran en las pruebas como ciencias sociales o educación física, o el incentivar la trampa en las pruebas.

Las pruebas tienden a mejorar el rendimiento medido de los alumnos, pero como documentan David Besanko y sus colegas en el libro Economics of Strategy, cuando se hacen pruebas diferentes que no están atadas al desempeño, las aparentes ganancias desaparecen.  Pareciera que la mejora en el desempeño en las pruebas no es un reflejo de una mejora en la calidad de la educación sino más bien un reflejo de que en las escuelas los alumnos aprendan a tomar bien las pruebas.

Uno puede concluir entonces que, por donde van los incentivos, ahí irán los esfuerzos.  Lo demás se deja de lado.

Lo que está sucediendo con las elecciones regionales es un claro ejemplo de esto.

Los políticos venezolanos no son buenos haciendo varias cosas a la vez.  De hecho, tal como han dicho los economistas Paul Milgrom y el ganador del Nobel Bengt Holmstrom, ninguno de nosotros es bueno en eso que llaman el multitasking.  Cuando hay recursos limitados (tiempo, dinero para hacer política, energía movilizadora), los esfuerzos se harán en aquellas actividades que más provecho personal rinden.  Lo demás pasa a ser secundario y sencillamente no se hace o se hace mal.

El mundo de la gerencia conoce esto desde hace tiempo.  Por ejemplo, si el bono de un gerente se condiciona al crecimiento del share de mercado, éste hará lo imposible por aumentar las ventas, aún a costas de los beneficios de la compañía.  Si, en cambio, se amarra a la reducción de costos, la calidad sufrirá porque el gerente buscará la manera de disminuir los costos a como dé lugar.

Los políticos venezolanos de oposición se enfrentan actualmente a un dilema.  Existe un grupo de ellos que quiere que el foco se mantenga en presionar al gobierno de Nicolás Maduro a través de protestas callejeras, que aumenten la presión internacional y militar y lleven al Gobierno a realizar concesiones.  Otro grupo piensa que el foco debe estar en pelear por ganar unas gobernaciones que, en teoría, tienen chance de ganar.

Decir que se pueden hacer ambas cosas es poco creíble.  Ambas estrategias son excluyentes.  Lo que sirve para ganar gobernaciones —mítines, recorrer pueblos, coordinar testigos electorales, movilizar electores, impedir el fraude— difiere mucho de lo que se ha recetado —presión de calle, lobby internacional y llamamientos a las FANB— para llevar a una salida electoral que ponga fin al gobierno de Maduro.

Y ante esta disyuntiva, muchos de los líderes de oposición ya se han decidido.  Dejarán de lado aquello por lo cual vienen luchando, pero que tiene poco chance de rendirles un beneficio, por aquello que les podría rendir un logro inmediato.

Esa es una posición legítima.  Incluso, podría ser considerada la correcta.  Pero lo menos que podemos pedirles a nuestros políticos es que la hagan explícita, que reconozcan que hay un cambio de estrategia y que, por ahora, la lucha por desalojar a Maduro deja de ser la principal.

Decirle a la gente que se van a hacer ambas cosas —luchar por las regionales y también luchar por el cambio de presidente— es engañar.  Ni las gobernaciones van a hacer salir a Maduro, ni los esfuerzos que se hagan por ganarlas acercarán a los venezolanos a esa meta.  Y como bien sabemos, no podemos esperar que los políticos hagan múltiples cosas a la vez.

Tal como en las escuelas sometidas a pruebas, dejarán de lado aquello que no reporta beneficios para concentrarse en la meta que ellos consideran accesible

 – Juan Cristóbal Nagel – 10-8-2017

http://prodavinci.com/blogs/las-regionales-y-el-dilema-del-multitasking-por-juan-cristobal-nagel/

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