Los ciudadanos de rentas medias convulsionan la política.  En los países ricos luchan por mantener su nivel de vida, mientras en las economías emergentes dan la batalla para acelerar sus progresos.

Una de las sorpresas que los historiadores estudiarán durante muchos años es la decisión de Estados Unidos de renunciar a su liderazgo mundial.  Más aun, tendrán que explicar por qué lo hizo unilateralmente y sin que nadie le arrebatara el inmenso poder que acumuló durante el siglo pasado.

Esta abdicación no fue el resultado de una decisión específica, sino de un complejo y largo proceso.  Y si bien la llegada de Donald Trump a la Casa Blanca aceleró las cosas, la cesión de poder ya venía dándose desde hace un tiempo.

¿Qué tienen en común un agricultor de Iowa, un diseñador gráfico de Chile, un jubilado de Reino Unido y un trabajador en una cadena de montaje de China? Dos cosas: son miembros de la clase media de su país y están furiosos con sus gobernantes.  Sus desilusiones están transformando la política y provocando acontecimientos sorprendentes, como la elección de Donald Trump, el Brexit, la defenestración de presidentes y una oleada mundial de protestas callejeras.

En muchos países del mundo desarrollado, la clase media está rebelándose contra el estancamiento o incluso el empeoramiento de su nivel de vida.  La globalización, la inmigración, la automatización, las desigualdades, los nacionalismos y el racismo abren oportunidades para aventureros de la política que venden malas ideas como si fueran buenas.

Por supuesto que también hubo ricos y pobres que votaron por Trump en Estados Unidos y por el Brexit en Reino Unido, y que muchas personas de clase media votaron en contra en ambos casos.  Sin embargo, no cabe duda de que, en los países ricos, y especialmente en EE. UU., quienes tienen rentas medias forman el segmento que más perjuicios económicos está sufriendo.

Pero estas convulsiones no solo suceden en los países ricos.  La clase media de Brasil, Turquía, China o Chile comparte las angustias que acosan a sus pares de Norteamérica y Europa occidental.  La paradoja es que, en las últimas tres décadas, cientos de millones de personas en Asia, Latinoamérica y África han salido de la pobreza y hoy forman parte de la clase media más numerosa de la historia.  Pero esas personas tampoco están satisfechas y están protestando en las urnas y en las calles.  Investigadores y diversas instituciones como el Banco Mundial definen la clase media como una franja con unos límites de ingresos muy amplios por arriba y por abajo, que pueden ir de 11 a 110 dólares diarios.  Y las convulsiones en este segmento de población no son nuevas.  En 2011 escribí que “la principal causa de los conflictos que se avecinan no será el choque entre civilizaciones, sino la indignación generada por las expectativas frustradas de una clase media que está en declive en los países ricos, y en ascenso en los pobres”.  “Es inevitable”, escribí, “que algunos políticos de los países desarrollados achaquen el declive económico de su clase media al despegue de otros países”.  Y advertía de que la prosperidad no siempre significa más estabilidad política.

La dimensión y la velocidad de la expansión de las clases medias en el planeta han sido verdaderamente espectaculares.  El economista Homi Kharas, experto en la clase media mundial, calcula en un reciente estudio que hoy pertenecen a ella 3.200 millones de personas, es decir, el 42% de la población total.  Cada año se incorporan 160 millones más.

Al ritmo actual de crecimiento, de aquí a unos años, la mayor parte de la humanidad vivirá, por primera vez en la historia, en hogares de clase media o superior.

Esa expansión ha tenido distinto alcance en diferentes países.  Mientras que en EE. UU., Europa, Japón y otras economías avanzadas la clase media crece a un mero 0,5% anual, en China e India ese mercado aumenta a un ritmo anual del 6%.  Si bien ha alcanzado una dimensión sin precedentes en países como Nigeria, Senegal, Perú y Chile, la expansión de la clase media es un fenómeno especialmente llamativo en Asia.  Según Kharas, los 1.000 millones de personas que se van a incorporar a la clase media en los próximos años vivirán, en su inmensa mayoría (¡un 88%!), en Asia.

Las consecuencias económicas son tremendas.  En los países en vías de desarrollo, el consumo está creciendo entre un 6% y un 10% anual, y ya constituye un tercio de la economía mundial.

Las consecuencias políticas pueden ser igual de importantes.  En Europa y en Estados Unidos son ya visibles en elecciones y referendos —Francia, Holanda, Reino Unido, Hungría, Polonia—, con la proliferación de candidatos y programas que antes eran impensables.  Como escribió hace poco Bill Emmott, antiguo director de The Economist: “Vivimos en una era llena de turbulencias políticas.  Sendos partidos con apenas un año de antigüedad se han hecho con el poder en Francia y en la enorme área metropolitana de Tokio.  Un partido con menos de cinco años encabeza los sondeos en Italia.  La Casa Blanca está ocupada por un neófito político, algo que causa un tremendo malestar entre los republicanos y los demócratas de toda la vida”.

Las turbulencias políticas también se hacen notar en países de rentas bajas y medias que están creciendo muy rápidamente.  Cada vez que la clase media aumenta, sus expectativas y demandas lo hacen también.  Unos actores sociales que están más conectados, que tienen más poder adquisitivo, tienen más educación e información, y son más conscientes de sus derechos, ejercen unas presiones inmensas sobre sus Gobiernos, que a menudo no tienen los recursos ni la capacidad institucional necesarios para responder a esas demandas.

Dichos países están empezando a mostrar fisuras similares a las de EE. UU. y Europa.  En Chile —cuyos éxitos económicos lo han convertido hace tiempo en modelo para otras naciones y cuenta con una de las sociedades más estables de Latinoamérica— ha habido protestas violentas, abstención masiva en las urnas e incluso un asalto al Congreso porque los ciudadanos quieren expresar su decepción con un Gobierno que sienten que les ha fallado.

En China, los investigadores han observado que entre 2002 y 2011 se produjo una drástica caída de la confianza de la clase media en las instituciones legales, el Gobierno y la policía, a pesar de que fue un periodo de fuerte crecimiento y mejora de los programas sociales.  El Gobierno chino está preocupado, sin duda.  De hecho, muchos piensan que el vertiginoso crecimiento del país es un pilar fundamental de la estrategia de Pekín para aplacar a la clase media: ya que el Gobierno no te va a ofrecer una democracia constitucional, libertad de expresión y derechos humanos universales, al menos hará que tengas un mejor salario, o incluso que puedas enriquecerte.  El riesgo es que una contracción económica prolongada podría desatar la agitación política que las autoridades tanto temen.

Los motivos del descontento en el mundo en desarrollo —a pesar de la mejora de los niveles de vida— son numerosos, pero sin duda el acceso a la información es un factor crucial.  Las personas educadas e informadas son más difíciles de controlar.  Es más, cuando miles de millones puede ver en su teléfono móvil cómo viven los demás, hay muchas más probabilidades de que se sientan insatisfechos con su situación.  Seguramente piensan: “Trabajo tanto como ellos, así que también me lo merezco”.  Ese “lo” pueden ser salarios más altos, sanidad más asequible, mejor educación para sus hijos, igualdad, mejores servicios públicos o libertad de expresión.  Ahora bien, la “conectividad” barata y generalizada y la revolución de la información no son los dos únicos factores.  También cuentan la urbanización, las migraciones, el aumento de las desigualdades, e incluso el nuevo entorno cultural y las expectativas sobre la corrupción, la autoridad y las jerarquías.

¿Qué va a pasar? El rechazo al “más de lo mismo” y los reacomodos políticos están siendo inevitables: Donald Trump y el Brexit no son más que dos manifestaciones, espoleadas en parte por la revuelta de las clases medias en los países ricos.  La furia de la clase media en los países pobres y de rentas medias también está en ebullición.  Sus consecuencias son imprevisibles.

 – Moisés Naim – 23-9-2017

El País – septiembre 23, 2017

https://elpais.com/internacional/2017/09/22/actualidad/1506099055_571906…

Traducción de M.  Luisa Rodríguez Tapia.

@moisesnaim

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