En un artículo que escribí hace algunas semanas mantuve que lograr la división de la oposición era la estrategia diseñada por Nicolás Maduro para evitar una aplastante derrota en la próxima elección presidencial como consecuencia del creciente rechazo de los venezolanos a su figura y a su desastrosa gestión de gobierno.  Esa estrategia ya había obtenido un primer éxito, en el año 2017, al romper la unidad de la oposición y debilitar el acuerdo político que había permitido el indiscutible triunfo en las elecciones parlamentarias del año 2015.  La unidad opositora se dividió entre radicales, que creían en la protesta popular como la forma más eficaz para derrocar a la dictadura, y los “electoralistas”, que mantenían la vía constitucional, democrática, pacífica y electoral como la única manera posible para imponer un cambio político.  La protesta popular fue diezmada por la criminal represión del régimen.  Esta dolorosa realidad pareció indicar que la oposición había recuperado, de nuevo, su unidad monolítica. 

Lamentablemente no fue así.  La inconstitucional convocatoria de una Asamblea Nacional Constituyente, irrespetando el principio: un ciudadano, un voto, demostró que el régimen madurista no permitiría jamás unas elecciones realmente transparentes en las cuales pudiese ser derrotado.  Los comicios para elegir alcaldes y gobernadores así lo demostraron: la convocatoria a destiempo, los miles de triquiñuelas empleadas, el fraude electoral en contra del triunfo de Andrés Velásquez en el estado Bolívar y la obligación impuesta a los triunfadores de juramentarse ante la írrita Asamblea Nacional Constituyente, evidenciaron esta nueva realidad política.  En virtud de los atropellos electorales cometidos por el gobierno, ha tomado cuerpo el abstencionismo, en respuesta a este estado de cosas.  Debemos también agregar la manifiesta incapacidad de la dirigencia opositora para diseñar una exitosa estrategia que pudiese garantizar un cambio político en Venezuela. 

De todas maneras, el sector “electoralista” quiso hacer un último esfuerzo para preservar el camino democrático y aceptó participar en Santo Domingo en unas nuevas conversaciones con el objeto de lograr las condiciones electorales previstas en la Constitución y en las normas legales establecidas.  El gobierno se dedicó a sabotear la posibilidad de lograr ese acuerdo y como era de esperarse dicho esfuerzo fracasó.  Ante la reprochable conducta oficial, un amplio sector de la comunidad internacional, así como importantes factores del quehacer nacional, se pronunciaron por el desconocimiento del resultado de la próxima elección presidencial.  Igualmente, con el argumento de no convalidar la ilegalidad del proceso, la mayoría de los partidos políticos de oposición decidieron no participar.  Henry Falcón insistió en que se escogiera un candidato único, fuera por encuestas o por primarias, manteniendo que era posible derrotar al régimen dado el inmenso rechazo popular de Nicolás Maduro. 

El resultado ha sido el recrudecimiento de la división entre electoralistas y abstencionistas.  Cada sector cree en su estrategia para lograr el cambio político: el electoralista considera posible la derrota de Nicolás Maduro en las elecciones presidenciales; el abstencionista cree en la presión internacional para debilitar el régimen.  Esta situación no debió haber ocurrido.  Era de extrema importancia mantener la unidad de la oposición.  Lamentablemente, así de compleja es la condición humana y la política.  Peor aún es que ocurran ataques entre uno y otro sector.  Espero que esa situación se supere, ya que después del 20 de mayo será imprescindible unificar a la oposición para enfrentar la difícil situación nacional.  No es fácil ver el futuro, pero los abusos gubernamentales y la creciente crisis social, consecuencia de la hiperinflación, del hambre y la muerte, puede conducir a un proceso incontrolable de violencia o a una creciente apatía que paralice la capacidad de lucha de nuestro pueblo. 

Veamos ahora las actuales circunstancias políticas: Henry Falcón está en campaña.  La totalidad de las encuestas le dan más de 12 puntos a su favor, cerca de dos millones de votos.  Si esta realidad se consolida tendría reales posibilidades de triunfo, pero requiere de un eficiente control de las mesas y de las actas electorales.  Su programa de gobierno plantea, desde un punto de vista político, reducir el período presidencial a cuatro años y eliminar la reelección inmediata; desde un punto de vista económico, mejorar la calidad de vida; ayudar a los más afectados por la crisis y otorgar al sector privado el marco jurídico y los incentivos para crear empleo, producir y crecer.  Tres medidas han tenido un gran impacto popular: devolver las empresas expropiadas, dolarizar para controlar la hiperinflación y crear la tarjeta solidaria.  La dictadura madurista no va a aceptar la derrota: incrementará el fraude y utilizará la fuerza para no reconocerla.  Henry Falcón debe estar preparado para denunciarlo enérgicamente ante nuestro pueblo y el mundo. 

El sector abstencionista planteó como estrategia central utilizar el campo internacional para cuestionar y debilitar la dictadura madurista.  Sin lugar a dudas, el esfuerzo realizado por los diputados Julio Borges y Luis Florido ha tenido una gran importancia para lograr el actual respaldo internacional.  Recientemente han ocurrido dos hechos que han cuestionado aún más la legitimidad del régimen madurista: la reunión de la VIII Cumbre de la Américas y el enjuiciamiento de Nicolás Maduro por el legítimo TSJ en el exilio.  La Cumbre de Lima tuvo el impacto esperado.  Pudimos observar que el tema central: “Gobernabilidad democrática ante la corrupción” fue opacado por las duras críticas que recibió el gobierno de Maduro por su convocatoria a destiempo de las elecciones de mayo y su falta de condiciones democráticas.  Además, el comunicado sobre Venezuela, aprobado por 17 países, planteó la necesidad de una solución democrática y humanitaria a nuestra inmanejable crisis nacional. 

La audiencia pública del legítimo Tribunal Supremo de Justicia en el exilio celebrada, el 9 de abril, en el senado colombiano, discutió las pruebas presentadas por la fiscal general de la República, Luisa Ortega Díaz, reconociendo que “existen causas probables en la comisión de delitos de corrupción y legitimación de capitales por el señor Nicolás Maduro Moros, en su ejercicio como jefe de Estado, en su relación personal con la empresa brasileña Odebrecht”.  Esta realidad obliga al legítimo TSJ en el exilio, en cumplimiento del artículo 266 constitucional, “a declarar si hay o no mérito para el enjuiciamiento del Presidente de la República, y en caso afirmativo, continuar conociendo de la causa, previa autorización de la Asamblea Nacional, hasta sentencia definitiva” 2.  Así lo comunicó a la Asamblea Nacional y ésta, con una mayoría suficiente de 105 votos, autorizó el enjuiciamiento del presidente Nicolás Maduro. 

Los esfuerzos de la oposición democrática, sea electoralista o abstencionista, han logrado un importante efecto político: debilitar la base de sustentación del régimen madurista.  Esta realidad parece no tener posibilidad de recuperación, ya que las constantes y permanentes arbitrariedades y corruptelas de la camarilla gobernante han minado de tal manera la legitimidad de origen y de ejercicio de Nicolás Maduro que la propia base de sustentación del régimen, constituida por la Fuerza Armada Nacional, el PSUV y la propia camarilla gobernante, empieza a desmoronarse.  Los rumores de graves divisiones internas, la detención y encarcelamiento de un número importante de oficiales, entre ellos varios comandantes de unidades tácticas, y el enfriamiento de algunos importantes respaldos en el orden político, nacional e internacional, muestran esta dura realidad.  Le doy un buen consejo a Nicolás Maduro: impulse una inmediata transición política.  No hacerlo puede traerle graves consecuencias a usted y a Venezuela.

Caracas, 22 de abril de 2018.

– Fernando Ochoa Antich – 22-4-2018

http://www.el-nacional.com/noticias/columnista/entre-abstencion-participacion_231935

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