¡SIN SALIDA!

La sequía de dólares por el descenso de la producción petrolera, la insistencia en el control de precios, el default y el impacto de las nuevas sanciones de Estados Unidos apuntan a que en el corto plazo se profundizará el deterioro de la economía.

Tras resultar ganador en unas elecciones cuestionadas por la oposición, la Unión Europea, doce países latinoamericanos, Estados Unidos y Canadá, Nicolás Maduro se dispone a continuar en la presidencia de Venezuela por otros seis años. Si bien ha prometido que su reelección será el inicio de un período de prosperidad, todo apunta a que al menos en el corto plazo, los venezolanos deben prepararse para una fase más aguda de la crisis económica.

La economía venezolana no crece desde 2014 y acumula seis meses en hiperinflación, pero lejos de comenzar a salir del túnel el país está a las puertas de un período de mayor escasez, incremento de los precios y persistencia de la recesión. Estas son las causas.

Menos dólares
En Venezuela 96 de cada 100 dólares provienen de las exportaciones de petróleo y la cantidad de barriles que se extrae diariamente cae vertiginosamente en un contexto de mala gerencia y falta de inversiones. En abril, de acuerdo con las cifras reportadas por el gobierno venezolano a la OPEP, la producción se ubicó en 1,5 millones de barriles diarios, cifra que se traduce en un declive de 4% respecto al mes anterior y de 22% respecto a octubre de 2017.

La consecuencia es que a pesar del rebote que han experimentado los precios del petróleo el país contará con menos divisas para que las empresas del sector privado importen materia prima e insumos, por lo tanto, continuará el declive de la oferta y la escasez de productos básicos en los mercados.

Alejandro Grisanti, director de Ecoanalítica, no descarta que la producción petrolera continúe en descenso y cierre este año en 1,2 millones de barriles diarios, menos de la mitad de lo que el país generaba en 1998 cuando el chavismo llegó al poder.

Un tribunal ordenó a PDVSA pagar 2.040 millones de dólares en compensación a ConocoPhillips, la tercera mayor petrolera del mundo, ConocoPhillips

Nuevas sanciones
En agosto de 2017 Estados Unidos consideró como ilegítima la elección de una Asamblea Nacional Constituyente en Venezuela y prohibió a sus bancos, empresas, particulares y en general a cualquier entidad financiar a PDVSA, la empresa petrolera en manos del estado venezolano, en operaciones con más de 90 días de vencimiento.

Esta medida limitó seriamente la posibilidad de Pdvsa de reestructurar su deuda o recibir crédito a largo plazo, pero permitía una serie de transacciones que alivian la estrechez de recursos. 
El lunes de esta semana, tras considerar la elección del pasado domingo como fraudulenta, el presidente de Estados Unidos, Donald Trump, reforzó el cerco con nuevas sanciones.

Las medidas prohíben comprarle al gobierno venezolano (incluyendo a PDVSA) cuentas por cobrar o recibirlas como colateral para facilitar alguna transacción financiera. Tampoco está permitido participar en transacciones donde el gobierno venezolano venda o intercambie acciones de empresas públicas o mixtas, algo que restringe fuertemente el rango de actuación de Pdvsa para alcanzar acuerdos con socios estratégicos.

Los países del Grupo de Lima (Argentina, Brasil, Canadá, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Guatemala, Guyana, Honduras, México, Panamá, Paraguay, Perú y Santa Lucía) también consideran fraudulenta la reelección de Nicolás Maduro y decidieron tomar acciones que aumentan la presión en el flanco económico.
Nicolás Maduro ha desconocido a la Asamblea Nacional, que se encuentra bajo control de la oposición, y el Grupo de Lima anunció que solicitará “a las autoridades competentes de cada país que emitan y actualicen circulares o boletines a nivel nacional que transmitan al sector financiero y bancario el riesgo en el que podrían incurrir si realizan operaciones con el gobierno de Venezuela que no cuenten con el aval de la Asamblea Nacional, incluyendo convenios de pagos y créditos recíprocos por operaciones de comercio exterior –incluido bienes militares y de seguridad”.

Además, el Grupo de Lima acordó “coordinar acciones para que los organismos financieros internacionales y regionales procuren no otorgar préstamos al Gobierno de Venezuela, por la naturaleza inconstitucional de adquirir deuda sin el aval de su Asamblea Nacional, excepto cuando el financiamiento sea utilizado en acciones de ayuda humanitaria”.

El control de precios
En un entorno donde el Gobierno se financia masivamente con la emisión de dinero y la oferta disminuye, el país entró en hiperinflación. Las proyecciones de Ecoanalítica señalan que al cierre de abril la inflación se ubicó en un promedio mensual de 80%, lo que arroja una tasa anual de 115.000%.

Ante este escenario Nicolás Maduro se dispone a reforzar el control de precios que está vigente desde 2003. Empresarios consultados advierten que lo previsible es que aumente la escasez porque solo por muy corto tiempo se podrá producir sin rentabilidad.

“Después del 20 de mayo vamos por las bandas criminales que roban al pueblo”, anunció Nicolás Maduro el pasado nueve de abril y el domingo advirtió que “la economía que tenemos no nos sirve, ha sido infectada de neoliberalismo y capitalismo salvaje”.

El 15 de mayo Kellogg’s anunció la decisión de cerrar sus operaciones en Venezuela ante el “actual deterioro económico y social”, aumentando la lista de empresas multinacionales que han salido de Venezuela.

La deuda externa venezolana ha crecido a niveles insostenibles, de acuerdo a los actuales ingresos en divisas. La deuda externa venezolana ha crecido a niveles insostenibles, de acuerdo a los actuales ingresos en divisas.
Las estadísticas del Banco Central de Venezuela registran que entre el tercer trimestre de 2004 y el tercer trimestre de 2014 la deuda por la emisión de bonos de la república y de Pdvsa se triplicó hasta ubicarse en 67 mil 714 millones, magnitud que luce inmanejable para la administración de Nicolás Maduro.

Entre noviembre y el cierre de la semana pasada el gobierno venezolano y Pdvsa acumulan atrasos en el pago de los intereses de sus bonos por el orden de 3 mil 500 millones de dólares y en el mercado financiero se comenta insistentemente que parte de los afectados han comenzado a organizarse para introducir demandas en Estados Unidos.

Tras el incumplimiento grupos de Inversionistas que tengan en sus portafolios bonos que representen al menos 25% del monto total de la emisión pueden solicitar la aceleración, es decir, exigir por adelantado el pago inmediato de toda la deuda. Si este evento se concreta quienes tienen otros bonos también pueden pedir la aceleración y entonces prácticamente habría que cancelar al instante todo lo adeudado.

Si las acciones legales avanzan no es descartable que los inversionistas intenten embargar activos de Pdvsa fuera de Venezuela o congelar cuentas por cobrar.

  Víctor Salmerón – 24-5-201

https://dolartoday.com/sin-salida-cuatro-razones-por-las-que-se-va-profundizar-la-crisis-de-la-economia-venezolana/

515 Comentarios

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  25. Are you presently terrified to test camping out since you have never been camping out prior to? Even when it is the first time outdoor camping, you may plan in advance to make certain it really is a effective vacation. It merely requires some confidence and a little bit of know-how. You’re specifically where you ought to be. In the post beneath, you will discover the important information to organize properly for the camping out journey. When you find yourself camping, essential for your personal gear is a success blade. This is a vital component of your outdoor camping products. Purchase a high quality surviving knife, not simply the lowest priced you can find, your lifestyle may depend upon it. These kitchen knives are common extremely related they have a long blade serrated in one part and a hollow deal with. In the take care of you may carry sport fishing collection, hooks, a compass, and fits as being a little success system. H2o is very important when camping outdoors. When outdoor camping in a camping area, there ought to be sufficient source of water accessible, but around the pathway, you should hold some with you. If you are planning very long distance, you must possibly have iodine pills to sterilize any water you find just before enjoying. Be careful, dysentery might be dangerous. If you’d want to stop mosquito bites, but want to avoid using tough chemicals, make use of an orange peel off as an alternative. Massage the orange peel around exposed places on the skin, such as the neck, biceps and triceps, encounter and thighs and legs to naturally get rid of mosquitoes. Not only can the orange peels feel better on your skin than standard repelling substances, nonetheless they will odor better, way too! Before leaving on the vacation, make use of back garden to assist you exercise the kinks inside your camping out devices. Create your tent to make sure you know (or keep in mind!) the best way to put it up. This can also enable you to see if anything at all has to be patched up. It will help it become that much easier when you get towards the campsite. By doing some planning and some investigation, you can consider a regular camping journey and transform it into one thing really particular. Make time to utilize these tips to plan your following household camping outdoors vacation and everybody will have a good time. Create the recollections that last a life time this coming year!

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  28. For those who have been wanting to know about what you should expect to have an upcoming camping out vacation, you possess come to the right spot. This information will discuss standard advice that will make your camping outdoors vacation go off without having a problem. Keep reading to discover precisely where you should start. An incredible product to set in your camping backpack when going in the back again country is a Ziploc case filled up with clothes dryer lint. There is no far better flame beginning fabric than clothes dryer lint. It will carry a kindle and acquire your blaze going efficiently and quickly. Dryer lint takes up virtually no space inside your pack which is really lightweight. When outdoor camping, provide the resting handbag that draws the year that you are currently in. Don’t have a large slumbering case out during the summer time, it could possibly make you perspire and also be not comfortable through the night very long. On the other side, provide a sleeping case designed for summer season camping out could make you extremely cold throughout your winter season camping vacation. You could possibly even commitment hypothermia. Present yourselves to many other family members camping out with your fast location, as a method for being societal and more apt to assist the other out. If yet another crew comes following you’ve put in place, offer to help because of their tent or gear. If anything will go awry during the journey for everyone, it’s much easier to demand help from one who was polite ample introducing themselves. When preparing for your camping out trip, don’t forget to bring along the sun screen lotion. Simply because you might be not on the beach doesn’t imply that you don’t will need protection from the sun’s burning rays. A sport sunscreen lotion can be quite a smart option if you will end up doing strenuous physical exercises on your getaway. Together with the suggestions provided in the following paragraphs, you will find the information you need to plan an excellent outdoor camping journey. Use the information you acquired to become master camper. Irrespective of how considerably you traveling, you will find a fantastic camping out experience.

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  33. Camping outdoors is fun! It is possible to connect to natural planet and also interact with yourself in ways that is just not achievable in the every single day planet. You can also hike and build your personal campfire from scratch. There could be countless activities to maintain everyone active throughout your camping out trip, but read more to understand how to go about your journey effectively. Plan consequently in terms of food items. It really is a trouble to help make place in your vehicle for all the meals you require. Nonetheless, correct nourishment is crucial while you are from the woods. Also, things that are relatively affordable inside your neighborhood retail store frequently possess a better price tag around camping websites. Bringing adequate foods means that you can expect to reduce costs while keeping everybody inside your household within a great frame of mind. While you are camping out, a necessity to your products can be a survival blade. This is the most essential component of your camping out equipment. Purchase a superior quality survival blade, not only the least expensive you can find, your way of life may rely on it. These cutlery are common very very similar there is a extended blade serrated on a single part along with a hollow take care of. Inside of the handle you can hold angling series, hooks, a compass, and complements as being a small success set. Get only photos by leaving only footprints. This is the rule of thumb when outdoor camping. Just use the natural resources that you need and do not leave any remnants which you have been camping out if you depart. Pick-up all trash, extinguish and deal with any blaze pits, bury all human being squander, and then make the spot that you camped look exactly as it do when you found it. If you are searching for outdoor camping alone or with friends, ensure you have prepared an emergency system. The items in the set may possibly transform dependant upon where you camp and your identiity with, but it must include standard items. If you consider you will find snakes, you may want to include antivenom. As you now know what you can do, start preparing your camping excursion. Get what you’ve discovered right here to cardiovascular system, and you’ll be a specialist camper right away. Whether you are looking for a few days escape or an comprehensive camping vacation, you will be sure to have a blast.

  34. A lot of people around the world will show you which they are living for camping out trips. Camping out is one thing everyone need one or more times with their life time. But outdoor camping might be a bummer when you appear to the camping location without the need of a minimum of a bit knowledge, however. Keep reading to have on your own prepared! Pre-cool your ice cubes upper body by filling up it with plenty of ice, at the very least 6 hours before departure. When you are about to leave, package up your refrigerated cooled drinks and block ice cubes, not cubed. Popping room temp liquids is going to take up valuable ice cubes-existence, and also the cubes will burn much quicker compared to a prevent! Did you know that a basic mirror can save your life? Should you be outdoor camping and wind up in a surviving situation, a straightforward hand held vanity mirror could be used to indicate for help many miles out. Do not buy the normal cup looking glass, many outdoor camping offer stores market decorative mirrors manufactured from Lexan that may drift and so are almost unbreakable. Menu is the key with regards to camping out. You should know what your location is, and the way to get back to civilization should you become shed. Constantly take a map of the location, plus a compass to help you. You may also use an outside Gps system that provides you with the navigation details, in addition to additional information including altitude. Individuals big, colourful plastic-type material storing receptacles make superb areas to store and manage all of your current camping items. Although in your own home, keep it inside a wardrobe or maybe the storage area and right before you leave for your camping vacation, pop it within the trunk area. It should always keep almost everything air-limited, dried out and simply readily available. As you now have a great concept on how to policy for your camping outdoors journey, you can start preparation and packing. Explore the wonders that the outdoors has provided you to appreciate. Keep the video camera ready! You are likely to would like to catch as many remembrances as you possibly can on your next camping excursion.

  35. ซึ่งมีประสบการณ์ทุกท่าน สำหรับชั้นประถมศึกษามีการเรียนการสอน 3 ภาษา นักเรียนได้เรียนภาษาอังกฤษกับครูต่างชาติทุกวัน เรียน Conversation กับครู native สัปดาห์ละ 2 ครั้ง

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